| 方案 | RPS↓ (vs基线) | Brier↓ | logloss↓ | 命中率 |
| 原始盲预测 基线 | 0.145 | 0.486 | 0.835 | 66.1% |
| +校准(温度+先验) 命中率↑ 但 RPS↓·不推荐 | 0.157 -8.1% | 0.509 | 0.871 | 67.7% |
| +Dixon-Coles(治平局·压自信) 样本内 RPS 最低 | 0.140 +3.9% | 0.470 | 0.802 | 66.1% |
| ★升级预测 = ½原始+½DC 推荐·最稳 | 0.140 +3.4% | 0.474 | 0.810 | 66.1% |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 06-15 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评40% Coin flip; Ecuador's organized defense and youth give a razor-thin edge over an even Ivory Coast. | 1:0 主胜 | 0.286 | ✗ 0分 |
| Germany vs Curacao 06-15 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88% Germany a top-8 power vs Curacao, a tiny debutant minnow; severe mismatch. | 7:1 主胜 | 0.005 | ✓ 1分 |
| Netherlands vs Japan 06-15 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评50% Netherlands deeper squad, but Japan press is elite and beat top sides in 2022 — closer than it looks. | 2:2 平 | 0.142 | ✗ 0分 |
| Belgium vs Egypt 06-16 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评55% Belgium more firepower; Egypt dangerous via Salah on the break. | 1:1 平 | 0.159 | ✗ 0分 |
| Spain vs Cape Verde 06-16 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88% Spain are tournament favorites (Euro 2024 winners) vs Cape Verde debutants; overwhelming gap. | 0:0 平 | 0.405 | ✗ 0分 |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay 06-16 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评55% Uruguay clearly stronger talent pool; Saudi capable of an upset but second-best on paper. | 1:1 平 | 0.159 | ✗ 0分 |
| Sweden vs Tunisia 06-15 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评45% Sweden slightly more attacking talent; Tunisia well-drilled and hard to break down — low-scoring. | 5:1 主胜 | 0.207 | ✓ 1分 |
| France vs Senegal 06-17 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评58% France among the favorites with elite depth; Senegal a genuine threat with real pace and power. | 3:1 主胜 | 0.121 | ✓ 1分 |
| Iran vs New Zealand 06-16 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评58% Iran a solid, experienced Asian side; New Zealand the weakest Oceania qualifier — Iran favored but cagey. | 2:2 平 | 0.167 | ✗ 0分 |
| Iraq vs Norway 06-17 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评57% Norway (Haaland, Odegaard) markedly stronger than Iraq; expect a comfortable Norway win. | 1:4 客胜 | 0.126 | ✓ 1分 |
| Argentina vs Algeria 06-17 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评74% Argentina are reigning world champions and clear favorites; Algeria decent but well below that level. | 3:0 主胜 | 0.044 | ✓ 1分 |
| Austria vs Jordan 06-17 12:00 京 / 14:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评60% Austria a cohesive European side; Jordan a plucky overachiever but lower ceiling. | 3:1 主胜 | 0.103 | ✓ 2分 |
| England vs Croatia 06-18 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评48% England's pace and depth edge an aging but still technically dangerous Croatia. | 4:2 主胜 | 0.164 | ✓ 1分 |
| Ghana vs Panama 06-18 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评45% Ghana's individual quality (Kudus, Partey) narrowly tops a well-organized, gritty Panama. | 1:0 主胜 | 0.185 | ✓ 3分 |
| Portugal vs DR Congo 06-18 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · K组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评72% Portugal's deep, elite squad heavily outclasses a solid but lower-tier DR Congo on a neutral field. | 1:1 平 | 0.264 | ✗ 0分 |
| Canada vs Qatar 06-19 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · B组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评62% Host Canada at BC Place with home advantage clearly outclasses Qatar. | 6:0 主胜 | 0.085 | ✓ 1分 |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa 06-19 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · A组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评48% Czechs carry more tournament pedigree and squad depth on a neutral field. | 1:1 平 | 0.144 | ✗ 0分 |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 06-19 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评52% Switzerland's tournament consistency edges a dangerous but less proven Bosnia. | 4:1 主胜 | 0.139 | ✓ 1分 |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia 06-18 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · K组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评58% Colombia's superior attacking talent should overcome debutants Uzbekistan despite the neutral Azteca setting. | 1:3 客胜 | 0.104 | ✓ 2分 |
| Mexico vs South Korea 06-19 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评48% Host Mexico's home crowd in Zapopan tips a close match against a solid Korea. | 1:0 主胜 | 0.166 | ✓ 2分 |
| Scotland vs Morocco 06-20 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评47% Morocco's 2022 semifinalist core and superior quality should control a neutral game against hard-working Scotland. | 0:1 客胜 | 0.172 | ✓ 3分 |
| United States vs Australia 06-20 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · D组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评52% Host USA get home advantage in Seattle and edge a disciplined but blunt Australia. | 2:0 主胜 | 0.139 | ✓ 1分 |
| Brazil vs Haiti 06-20 08:30 京 / 10:30 悉 · C组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88% Brazil's class vastly outstrips minnows Haiti and should win comfortably. | 3:0 主胜 | 0.008 | ✓ 3分 |
| Germany vs Ivory Coast 06-21 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:1 · 自评68% Germany's 7-1 demolition of Curacao shows firepower far beyond Ivory Coast's grind-it-out 1-0 win. | 2:1 主胜 | 0.060 | ✓ 1分 |
| Netherlands vs Sweden 06-21 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评47% Netherlands are the stronger, deeper side though Sweden's 5-1 rout of Tunisia warns of their attacking threat. | 5:1 主胜 | 0.172 | ✓ 1分 |
| Turkey vs Paraguay 06-20 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · D组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评41% Turkey's attacking talent gives a slight edge over organized Paraguay on a neutral field. | — | — | |
| Belgium vs Iran 06-22 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评62% Belgium's superior attack should break down an Iran side that leaked two against New Zealand. | 0:0 平 | 0.205 | ✗ 0分 |
| Ecuador vs Curacao 06-21 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评70% Ecuador were solid in a narrow loss to Ivory Coast while Curacao were thrashed 7-1, so the Ecuadorians should control this comfortably. | 0:0 平 | 0.250 | ✗ 0分 |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia 06-22 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评79% Spain's class far outstrips Saudi Arabia despite a flat opening draw with Cape Verde. | 4:0 主胜 | 0.024 | ✓ 1分 |
| Tunisia vs Japan 06-21 12:00 京 / 14:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评57% Japan looked sharp drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands while Tunisia were thrashed 5-1 by Sweden, making the technically superior Japanese clear favorites on neutral ground. | 0:4 客胜 | 0.109 | ✓ 1分 |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde 06-22 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评58% Uruguay's quality edges a disciplined Cape Verde that held Spain scoreless. | 2:2 平 | 0.178 | ✗ 0分 |
| Argentina vs Austria 06-23 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68% World champions Argentina cruised past Algeria and clearly outclass an Austria side that beat Jordan. | 2:0 主胜 | 0.058 | ✓ 3分 |
| France vs Iraq 06-23 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评80% France's depth dismantled Senegal while Iraq were thrashed 4:1 by Norway, a huge gulf in quality. | 3:0 主胜 | 0.022 | ✓ 3分 |
| New Zealand vs Egypt 06-22 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评42% Salah-led Egypt, fresh off holding Belgium, has more cutting edge than New Zealand. | 1:3 客胜 | 0.205 | ✓ 1分 |
| England vs Ghana 06-24 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68% England scored four past Croatia while Ghana only edged Panama 1:0. | 0:0 平 | 0.238 | ✗ 0分 |
| Jordan vs Algeria 06-23 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评44% Both lost their openers, but Algeria's superior individual quality should overcome a battling Jordan. | 1:2 客胜 | 0.196 | ✓ 3分 |
| Norway vs Senegal 06-23 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评42% Haaland-led Norway carry momentum from a 4:1 win, edging a talented but defensively shaky Senegal. | 3:2 主胜 | 0.216 | ✓ 2分 |
| Panama vs Croatia 06-24 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评52% Croatia have far more pedigree and need a win after losing to England. | 0:1 客胜 | 0.139 | ✓ 2分 |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan 06-24 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · K组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评72% Portugal's quality far outstrips Uzbekistan, who already lost 3:1 to Colombia. | 5:0 主胜 | 0.044 | ✓ 1分 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar 06-25 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评62% Bosnia clearly stronger than a Qatar side thumped 6-0 by Canada. | 3:1 主胜 | 0.085 | ✓ 2分 |
| Colombia vs DR Congo 06-24 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · K组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评55% Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3:1 while DR Congo only drew Portugal at neutral Zapopan. | 1:0 主胜 | 0.121 | ✓ 2分 |
| Morocco vs Haiti 06-25 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68% Morocco beat Scotland and far outclass a Haiti side routed by Brazil. | 4:2 主胜 | 0.058 | ✓ 2分 |
| Scotland vs Brazil 06-25 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评70% Brazil's quality overwhelms a Scotland team that already lost to Morocco. | 0:3 客胜 | 0.052 | ✓ 1分 |
| Switzerland vs Canada 06-25 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评40% Canada's 6-0 form plus home advantage in Vancouver edges a solid Switzerland. | 2:1 主胜 | 0.304 | ✗ 0分 |
| Curacao vs Ivory Coast 06-26 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评63% Ivory Coast are clearly stronger than a Curacao side that shipped seven to Germany, so they should control this comfortably. | 0:2 客胜 | 0.080 | ✓ 3分 |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico 06-25 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评45% Mexico at the Azteca with home advantage edges a draw-prone Czech side. | 0:3 客胜 | 0.188 | ✓ 1分 |
| Ecuador vs Germany 06-26 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评58% Germany's potent attack should overcome stubborn Ecuador, whose blunt forward line has yet to score this tournament. | 2:1 主胜 | 0.521 | ✗ 0分 |
| Japan vs Sweden 06-26 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评46% In-form, balanced Japan are favored over a Sweden side that scores freely but was defensively exposed by the Netherlands. | 1:1 平 | 0.142 | ✗ 0分 |
| South Africa vs South Korea 06-25 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评38% South Korea's slightly higher ceiling tips a tight neutral-venue contest. | 1:0 主胜 | 0.303 | ✗ 0分 |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands 06-26 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · F组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:3 · 自评72% The Netherlands are heavy favorites against a Tunisia side that has conceded nine goals in two matches. | 1:3 客胜 | 0.045 | ✓ 1分 |
| Norway vs France 06-27 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评42% Both already through, but France's deeper squad edges a tight decider on neutral ground. | 1:4 客胜 | 0.216 | ✓ 1分 |
| Paraguay vs Australia 06-26 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · D组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评37% Two evenly matched mid-tier sides on a neutral pitch, with organized Paraguay narrowly favored in a likely low-scoring, draw-prone game. | 0:0 平 | 0.120 | ✗ 0分 |
| Senegal vs Iraq 06-27 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评66% Senegal far superior to Iraq even in a dead rubber, comfortable win expected. | 5:0 主胜 | 0.069 | ✓ 1分 |
| Turkey vs United States 06-26 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · D组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评38% Turkey's superior talent is offset by the USA's host-nation home advantage at SoFi, edging the in-form Americans ahead in a coin-flip. | — | — | |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 06-28 07:30 京 / 09:30 悉 · K组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评52% DR Congo (competitive vs Portugal/Colombia) must win and faces a leaky, eliminated Uzbekistan that conceded eight. | 3:1 主胜 | 0.123 | ✓ 2分 |
| Colombia vs Portugal 06-28 07:30 京 / 09:30 悉 · K组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评38% Portugal's deeper squad edges it, but both being near-safe makes a cagey draw nearly as likely. | 0:0 平 | 0.120 | ✗ 0分 |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 06-27 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评40% Even matchup, but resilient Cape Verde shade a Saudi side already thrashed by Spain. | 0:0 平 | 0.122 | ✗ 0分 |
| Croatia vs Ghana 06-28 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评48% Croatia's superior quality and must-win urgency overcome a Ghana side content to defend for the draw it needs. | 2:1 主胜 | 0.149 | ✓ 1分 |
| Egypt vs Iran 06-27 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评40% In-form group leaders Egypt edge a stubborn, defensively organized Iran. | 1:1 平 | 0.119 | ✗ 0分 |
| New Zealand vs Belgium 06-27 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · G组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评67% Belgium vastly stronger and must win; routine victory over New Zealand. | 1:5 客胜 | 0.064 | ✓ 1分 |
| Panama vs England 06-28 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · L组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:3 · 自评80% England is vastly stronger and will chase goals to lock up top spot against weak, eliminated Panama. | 0:2 客胜 | 0.027 | ✓ 1分 |
| Uruguay vs Spain 06-27 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · H组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评44% Dominant in-form Spain win narrowly against a defensive but blunt Uruguay. | 0:1 客胜 | 0.193 | ✓ 3分 |
| Algeria vs Austria 06-28 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评40% Austria edges a tight 2nd-place decider on greater organization (lost only 0:2 to Argentina vs Algeria's 0:3). | 3:3 平 | 0.134 | ✗ 0分 |
| Jordan vs Argentina 06-28 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · J组 | pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评78% Argentina already top and far superior; even a rotated side beats eliminated Jordan comfortably. | 1:3 客胜 | 0.034 | ✓ 2分 |
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