⚽ 世界杯预测能力实验

预测者 = Claude opus-4-8(训练截止 2026-01,对赛果零知识 → 真盲测)。每场在开球前锁定概率+比分,git 提交+SHA 留痕,事后对真实结果。
62
已评分
66%
命中率
argmax pick
0.145
RPS(越低越好)
主指标
0.486
Brier
67
Kicktipp 分
3准/2净胜/1方向
0.167
ECE(校准误差)
越低越准
均匀基线 RPS=0.232 · 技巧分 +0.374 | 庄家 RPS=0.150(同 18 场) · 我同批 0.163 · 技巧 -0.082
概率条:主胜 · · 客胜 | RPS 主指标(越低越好);Kicktipp:准确比分3/净胜球2/方向1
📈 改善实验:盲预测 → 升级方法(同样不看赔率,62 场回测)
方案RPS↓ (vs基线)Brier↓logloss↓命中率
原始盲预测 基线0.1450.4860.83566.1%
+校准(温度+先验) 命中率↑ 但 RPS↓·不推荐0.157 -8.1%0.5090.87167.7%
+Dixon-Coles(治平局·压自信) 样本内 RPS 最低0.140 +3.9%0.4700.80266.1%
★升级预测 = ½原始+½DC 推荐·最稳0.140 +3.4%0.4740.81066.1%
病根(实测 62 场):Claude 平均给平局 23.7% / 实际 27.4%(17 场),argmax 0/62 次押平、几乎漏掉全部真平局;且对大热门过度自信。DC 同时抬平局+压过度自信 → Brier/logloss 改善较稳。
📐 升级预测 vs 基线 配对 ΔRPS = -0.0049 [-0.0123, +0.0030](95%CI 跨 0,样本小未达显著,但 3 项指标方向一致)
⚖️ 公平对庄家(仅同一批 18 场有赔率,修正旧版苹果比橘子):升级 RPS=0.158 · 庄家(去水位)RPS=0.150。配对 ΔRPS(升级−庄家)=+0.0075 [-0.0086,+0.0246] → 区分不开,仍未打赢庄家(科学上预期)。
诚实:样本仅 62 场,RPS 差异多在统计噪声内(见 CI);能稳的是方向(与学界一致:独立泊松低估平局)与 Brier/logloss。命中率无法靠后处理提升——平局赛前本就难点中,硬押平会把对的主客猜翻车。
Ivory Coast
vs Ecuador
06-15 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · E组
333235
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评40%
Coin flip; Ecuador's organized defense and youth give a razor-thin edge over an even Ivory Coast.
1:0 主胜0.286✗ 0分
Germany
vs Curacao
06-15 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · E组
9073
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88%
Germany a top-8 power vs Curacao, a tiny debutant minnow; severe mismatch.
7:1 主胜0.005✓ 1分
Netherlands
vs Japan
06-15 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · F组
472825
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评50%
Netherlands deeper squad, but Japan press is elite and beat top sides in 2022 — closer than it looks.
2:2 0.142✗ 0分
Belgium
vs Egypt
06-16 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · G组
522622
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评55%
Belgium more firepower; Egypt dangerous via Salah on the break.
1:1 0.159✗ 0分
Spain
vs Cape Verde
06-16 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · H组
9073
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88%
Spain are tournament favorites (Euro 2024 winners) vs Cape Verde debutants; overwhelming gap.
0:0 0.405✗ 0分
Saudi Arabia
vs Uruguay
06-16 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · H组
222652
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评55%
Uruguay clearly stronger talent pool; Saudi capable of an upset but second-best on paper.
1:1 0.159✗ 0分
Sweden
vs Tunisia
06-15 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · F组
423028
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评45%
Sweden slightly more attacking talent; Tunisia well-drilled and hard to break down — low-scoring.
5:1 主胜0.207✓ 1分
France
vs Senegal
06-17 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组
552520
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评58%
France among the favorites with elite depth; Senegal a genuine threat with real pace and power.
3:1 主胜0.121✓ 1分
Iran
vs New Zealand
06-16 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · G组
552718
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评58%
Iran a solid, experienced Asian side; New Zealand the weakest Oceania qualifier — Iran favored but cagey.
2:2 0.167✗ 0分
Iraq
vs Norway
06-17 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · I组
202654
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评57%
Norway (Haaland, Odegaard) markedly stronger than Iraq; expect a comfortable Norway win.
1:4 客胜0.126✓ 1分
Argentina
vs Algeria
06-17 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · J组
721810
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评74%
Argentina are reigning world champions and clear favorites; Algeria decent but well below that level.
3:0 主胜0.044✓ 1分
Austria
vs Jordan
06-17 12:00 京 / 14:00 悉 · J组
582517
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评60%
Austria a cohesive European side; Jordan a plucky overachiever but lower ceiling.
3:1 主胜0.103✓ 2分
England
vs Croatia
06-18 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · L组
482824
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评48%
England's pace and depth edge an aging but still technically dangerous Croatia.
4:2 主胜0.164✓ 1分
Ghana
vs Panama
06-18 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · L组
452926
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评45%
Ghana's individual quality (Kudus, Partey) narrowly tops a well-organized, gritty Panama.
1:0 主胜0.185✓ 3分
Portugal
vs DR Congo
06-18 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · K组
721810
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评72%
Portugal's deep, elite squad heavily outclasses a solid but lower-tier DR Congo on a neutral field.
1:1 0.264✗ 0分
Canada
vs Qatar
06-19 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · B组
622216
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评62%
Host Canada at BC Place with home advantage clearly outclasses Qatar.
6:0 主胜0.085✓ 1分
Czech Republic
vs South Africa
06-19 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · A组
482824
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评48%
Czechs carry more tournament pedigree and squad depth on a neutral field.
1:1 0.144✗ 0分
Switzerland
vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
06-19 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组
522622
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评52%
Switzerland's tournament consistency edges a dangerous but less proven Bosnia.
4:1 主胜0.139✓ 1分
Uzbekistan
vs Colombia
06-18 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · K组
182458
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评58%
Colombia's superior attacking talent should overcome debutants Uzbekistan despite the neutral Azteca setting.
1:3 客胜0.104✓ 2分
Mexico
vs South Korea
06-19 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组
482725
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评48%
Host Mexico's home crowd in Zapopan tips a close match against a solid Korea.
1:0 主胜0.166✓ 2分
Scotland
vs Morocco
06-20 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组
252847
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评47%
Morocco's 2022 semifinalist core and superior quality should control a neutral game against hard-working Scotland.
0:1 客胜0.172✓ 3分
United States
vs Australia
06-20 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · D组
522622
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评52%
Host USA get home advantage in Seattle and edge a disciplined but blunt Australia.
2:0 主胜0.139✓ 1分
Brazil
vs Haiti
06-20 08:30 京 / 10:30 悉 · C组
8884
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88%
Brazil's class vastly outstrips minnows Haiti and should win comfortably.
3:0 主胜0.008✓ 3分
Germany
vs Ivory Coast
06-21 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组
681913
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:1 · 自评68%
Germany's 7-1 demolition of Curacao shows firepower far beyond Ivory Coast's grind-it-out 1-0 win.
2:1 主胜0.060✓ 1分
Netherlands
vs Sweden
06-21 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · F组
472825
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评47%
Netherlands are the stronger, deeper side though Sweden's 5-1 rout of Tunisia warns of their attacking threat.
5:1 主胜0.172✓ 1分
Turkey
vs Paraguay
06-20 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · D组
413029
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评41%
Turkey's attacking talent gives a slight edge over organized Paraguay on a neutral field.
Belgium
vs Iran
06-22 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · G组
622216
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评62%
Belgium's superior attack should break down an Iran side that leaked two against New Zealand.
0:0 0.205✗ 0分
Ecuador
vs Curacao
06-21 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · E组
702010
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评70%
Ecuador were solid in a narrow loss to Ivory Coast while Curacao were thrashed 7-1, so the Ecuadorians should control this comfortably.
0:0 0.250✗ 0分
Spain
vs Saudi Arabia
06-22 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · H组
79147
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评79%
Spain's class far outstrips Saudi Arabia despite a flat opening draw with Cape Verde.
4:0 主胜0.024✓ 1分
Tunisia
vs Japan
06-21 12:00 京 / 14:00 悉 · F组
182557
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评57%
Japan looked sharp drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands while Tunisia were thrashed 5-1 by Sweden, making the technically superior Japanese clear favorites on neutral ground.
0:4 客胜0.109✓ 1分
Uruguay
vs Cape Verde
06-22 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · H组
582814
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评58%
Uruguay's quality edges a disciplined Cape Verde that held Spain scoreless.
2:2 0.178✗ 0分
Argentina
vs Austria
06-23 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · J组
682012
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68%
World champions Argentina cruised past Algeria and clearly outclass an Austria side that beat Jordan.
2:0 主胜0.058✓ 3分
France
vs Iraq
06-23 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · I组
80137
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评80%
France's depth dismantled Senegal while Iraq were thrashed 4:1 by Norway, a huge gulf in quality.
3:0 主胜0.022✓ 3分
New Zealand
vs Egypt
06-22 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · G组
273142
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评42%
Salah-led Egypt, fresh off holding Belgium, has more cutting edge than New Zealand.
1:3 客胜0.205✓ 1分
England
vs Ghana
06-24 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · L组
682012
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68%
England scored four past Croatia while Ghana only edged Panama 1:0.
0:0 0.238✗ 0分
Jordan
vs Algeria
06-23 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · J组
282844
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评44%
Both lost their openers, but Algeria's superior individual quality should overcome a battling Jordan.
1:2 客胜0.196✓ 3分
Norway
vs Senegal
06-23 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · I组
422731
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评42%
Haaland-led Norway carry momentum from a 4:1 win, edging a talented but defensively shaky Senegal.
3:2 主胜0.216✓ 2分
Panama
vs Croatia
06-24 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · L组
222652
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评52%
Croatia have far more pedigree and need a win after losing to England.
0:1 客胜0.139✓ 2分
Portugal
vs Uzbekistan
06-24 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · K组
721810
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评72%
Portugal's quality far outstrips Uzbekistan, who already lost 3:1 to Colombia.
5:0 主胜0.044✓ 1分
Bosnia and Herzegovina
vs Qatar
06-25 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组
622216
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评62%
Bosnia clearly stronger than a Qatar side thumped 6-0 by Canada.
3:1 主胜0.085✓ 2分
Colombia
vs DR Congo
06-24 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · K组
552520
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评55%
Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3:1 while DR Congo only drew Portugal at neutral Zapopan.
1:0 主胜0.121✓ 2分
Morocco
vs Haiti
06-25 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组
682012
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评68%
Morocco beat Scotland and far outclass a Haiti side routed by Brazil.
4:2 主胜0.058✓ 2分
Scotland
vs Brazil
06-25 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · C组
121870
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评70%
Brazil's quality overwhelms a Scotland team that already lost to Morocco.
0:3 客胜0.052✓ 1分
Switzerland
vs Canada
06-25 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · B组
332740
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评40%
Canada's 6-0 form plus home advantage in Vancouver edges a solid Switzerland.
2:1 主胜0.304✗ 0分
Curacao
vs Ivory Coast
06-26 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组
152263
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评63%
Ivory Coast are clearly stronger than a Curacao side that shipped seven to Germany, so they should control this comfortably.
0:2 客胜0.080✓ 3分
Czech Republic
vs Mexico
06-25 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组
272845
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评45%
Mexico at the Azteca with home advantage edges a draw-prone Czech side.
0:3 客胜0.188✓ 1分
Ecuador
vs Germany
06-26 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · E组
162658
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评58%
Germany's potent attack should overcome stubborn Ecuador, whose blunt forward line has yet to score this tournament.
2:1 主胜0.521✗ 0分
Japan
vs Sweden
06-26 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · F组
462727
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评46%
In-form, balanced Japan are favored over a Sweden side that scores freely but was defensively exposed by the Netherlands.
1:1 0.142✗ 0分
South Africa
vs South Korea
06-25 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · A组
323038
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评38%
South Korea's slightly higher ceiling tips a tight neutral-venue contest.
1:0 主胜0.303✗ 0分
Tunisia
vs Netherlands
06-26 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · F组
111772
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:3 · 自评72%
The Netherlands are heavy favorites against a Tunisia side that has conceded nine goals in two matches.
1:3 客胜0.045✓ 1分
Norway
vs France
06-27 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组
312742
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评42%
Both already through, but France's deeper squad edges a tight decider on neutral ground.
1:4 客胜0.216✓ 1分
Paraguay
vs Australia
06-26 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · D组
373132
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评37%
Two evenly matched mid-tier sides on a neutral pitch, with organized Paraguay narrowly favored in a likely low-scoring, draw-prone game.
0:0 0.120✗ 0分
Senegal
vs Iraq
06-27 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组
661915
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评66%
Senegal far superior to Iraq even in a dead rubber, comfortable win expected.
5:0 主胜0.069✓ 1分
Turkey
vs United States
06-26 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · D组
342838
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评38%
Turkey's superior talent is offset by the USA's host-nation home advantage at SoFi, edging the in-form Americans ahead in a coin-flip.
DR Congo
vs Uzbekistan
06-28 07:30 京 / 09:30 悉 · K组
552421
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评52%
DR Congo (competitive vs Portugal/Colombia) must win and faces a leaky, eliminated Uzbekistan that conceded eight.
3:1 主胜0.123✓ 2分
Colombia
vs Portugal
06-28 07:30 京 / 09:30 悉 · K组
313138
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评38%
Portugal's deeper squad edges it, but both being near-safe makes a cagey draw nearly as likely.
0:0 0.120✗ 0分
Cape Verde
vs Saudi Arabia
06-27 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · H组
403129
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评40%
Even matchup, but resilient Cape Verde shade a Saudi side already thrashed by Spain.
0:0 0.122✗ 0分
Croatia
vs Ghana
06-28 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · L组
502822
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评48%
Croatia's superior quality and must-win urgency overcome a Ghana side content to defend for the draw it needs.
2:1 主胜0.149✓ 1分
Egypt
vs Iran
06-27 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · G组
403228
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评40%
In-form group leaders Egypt edge a stubborn, defensively organized Iran.
1:1 0.119✗ 0分
New Zealand
vs Belgium
06-27 11:00 京 / 13:00 悉 · G组
141967
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评67%
Belgium vastly stronger and must win; routine victory over New Zealand.
1:5 客胜0.064✓ 1分
Panama
vs England
06-28 05:00 京 / 07:00 悉 · L组
71578
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:3 · 自评80%
England is vastly stronger and will chase goals to lock up top spot against weak, eliminated Panama.
0:2 客胜0.027✓ 1分
Uruguay
vs Spain
06-27 08:00 京 / 10:00 悉 · H组
272944
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评44%
Dominant in-form Spain win narrowly against a defensive but blunt Uruguay.
0:1 客胜0.193✓ 3分
Algeria
vs Austria
06-28 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · J组
332740
pick: 客胜 · 比分 1:2 · 自评40%
Austria edges a tight 2nd-place decider on greater organization (lost only 0:2 to Argentina vs Algeria's 0:3).
3:3 0.134✗ 0分
Jordan
vs Argentina
06-28 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · J组
81775
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评78%
Argentina already top and far superior; even a rotated side beats eliminated Jordan comfortably.
1:3 客胜0.034✓ 2分
🔒 锁定铁证(开球前提交)
lock_utc场数模型SHA256
2026-06-13T14:09:51Z12claude-opus-4-87aadddb81142a0d1a69524db1e23a4d89fd40dd6986b95c8e169e6b96a76a962
2026-06-16T11:00:28Z4claude-opus-4-886c0672769b950e3d5e638b824544ec45c522d88c98eb97583fd469db6488f87
2026-06-17T11:01:07Z4claude-opus-4-8ea25b4868d1602ae97e2300414302ac73b9b86914a41cb7ba03643c25859b79e
2026-06-18T23:01:26Z4claude-opus-4-8dd5c34cd3832abcea71980c1f952ee20003251294f8e37b83cb6137d6ed57d92
2026-06-19T11:00:28Z3claude-opus-4-83edd17dcff8f7ef13b905c3c20878e82850cbc09c33cdba999391861ed6355e6
2026-06-19T23:00:28Z1claude-opus-4-819a19a0b0b62613c1d2234d1dc02b4eed57602011afad65ff82dec40947c8869
2026-06-20T11:00:28Z4claude-opus-4-894af725041b1aac39cc36bb99c99840578d17381ee01827d1a7ab69fbfd6a05e
2026-06-21T11:00:26Z4claude-opus-4-8aebf11df5c186bb30b00141b1f101c44764d316dc2d62094e9a27798f46ec90d
2026-06-22T11:00:53Z4claude-opus-4-8e8d0c90b245be496d22de3a35244aa173d8776b7f7e343a57f6e56276e3c6e8e
2026-06-23T11:00:29Z6claude-opus-4-86493a01012ac01b373dc7eee1b8c7adc5ae220430ee33295a9d623ee9429e870
2026-06-24T11:03:33Z6claude-opus-4-8d5c8587f005b3f954151b280f261294fa63ac438880cf026074e752fdc533e8e
2026-06-25T11:03:44Z6claude-opus-4-80ff0495f0cf163a2a8a9b26031f486eee45920aab6171eed361777c2add64e2b
2026-06-26T11:03:19Z6claude-opus-4-82bcc8c90246122cb26614eaa9ada30c814fdae9200243d5e356119f3a4acce34
诚实预期:足球高方差。真正的读数是概率校准 + 相对庄家/均匀基线的技巧分,不是"赢了几场"。能逼近去水位市场且校准良好,就是强结果;持续打赢市场几乎不可能(那是科学上预期的)。