⚽ 世界杯预测能力实验

预测者 = Claude opus-4-8(训练截止 2026-01,对赛果零知识 → 真盲测)。每场在开球前锁定概率+比分,git 提交+SHA 留痕,事后对真实结果。
尚无已完赛比赛 — 预测已全部锁定,等开球。
概率条:主胜 · · 客胜 | RPS 主指标(越低越好);Kicktipp:准确比分3/净胜球2/方向1
Ivory Coast
vs Ecuador
06-15 07:00 京 / 09:00 悉 · E组
333235
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:1 · 自评40%
Coin flip; Ecuador's organized defense and youth give a razor-thin edge over an even Ivory Coast.
Germany
vs Curacao
06-15 01:00 京 / 03:00 悉 · E组
9073
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88%
Germany a top-8 power vs Curacao, a tiny debutant minnow; severe mismatch.
Netherlands
vs Japan
06-15 04:00 京 / 06:00 悉 · F组
472825
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评50%
Netherlands deeper squad, but Japan press is elite and beat top sides in 2022 — closer than it looks.
Belgium
vs Egypt
06-16 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · G组
522622
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评55%
Belgium more firepower; Egypt dangerous via Salah on the break.
Spain
vs Cape Verde
06-16 00:00 京 / 02:00 悉 · H组
9073
pick: 主胜 · 比分 3:0 · 自评88%
Spain are tournament favorites (Euro 2024 winners) vs Cape Verde debutants; overwhelming gap.
Saudi Arabia
vs Uruguay
06-16 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · H组
222652
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评55%
Uruguay clearly stronger talent pool; Saudi capable of an upset but second-best on paper.
Sweden
vs Tunisia
06-15 10:00 京 / 12:00 悉 · F组
423028
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评45%
Sweden slightly more attacking talent; Tunisia well-drilled and hard to break down — low-scoring.
France
vs Senegal
06-17 03:00 京 / 05:00 悉 · I组
552520
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:1 · 自评58%
France among the favorites with elite depth; Senegal a genuine threat with real pace and power.
Iran
vs New Zealand
06-16 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · G组
552718
pick: 主胜 · 比分 1:0 · 自评58%
Iran a solid, experienced Asian side; New Zealand the weakest Oceania qualifier — Iran favored but cagey.
Iraq
vs Norway
06-17 06:00 京 / 08:00 悉 · I组
202654
pick: 客胜 · 比分 0:2 · 自评57%
Norway (Haaland, Odegaard) markedly stronger than Iraq; expect a comfortable Norway win.
Argentina
vs Algeria
06-17 09:00 京 / 11:00 悉 · J组
721810
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评74%
Argentina are reigning world champions and clear favorites; Algeria decent but well below that level.
Austria
vs Jordan
06-17 12:00 京 / 14:00 悉 · J组
582517
pick: 主胜 · 比分 2:0 · 自评60%
Austria a cohesive European side; Jordan a plucky overachiever but lower ceiling.
🔒 锁定铁证(开球前提交)
lock_utc场数模型SHA256
2026-06-13T14:09:51Z12claude-opus-4-87aadddb81142a0d1a69524db1e23a4d89fd40dd6986b95c8e169e6b96a76a962
诚实预期:足球高方差。真正的读数是概率校准 + 相对庄家/均匀基线的技巧分,不是"赢了几场"。能逼近去水位市场且校准良好,就是强结果;持续打赢市场几乎不可能(那是科学上预期的)。